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05 September 2007

Red Alert: Tom Gangale explains it all for you

The other day, while checking the California Attorney General's initiatives page for new news, I found that yet a third group has submitted an initiative meant to change the allocation of California's Electoral College votes. On my Red Alert! page I noted it, and asked the question:

And who the hell are these guys (CURE "California United to Reform Elections")??? Their initiative was received in the Attorney General's office on August 27. I read it quickly — and it doesn't pass the smell test. Besides, it appears to be very badly drafted. Some clarification on this soon, I hope.

Clarification comes from Tom Gangale, who is really on top of this issue and seems to be as obsessed by it as I am. He answers my question at his blog, Out of the Blue, Into the Black. [Gangale's bona fides: he's an aerospace engineer, Democratic activist and author of From the Primaries to the Polls: How to Repair America's Broken Presidential Nomination Process. At the California Progress Report he has a great piece casting the math behind the GOP initiative in the familiar terms of baseball.]

Gangale explicates this most recent initiative and tells us just what's wrong with it. (And he brings up the whole question of whether changing the method of choosing electors by initiative — rather than by legislative action — would pass Constitutional muster):

Yet another proposal to change the way California casts its 55 electoral votes may result in voters being so confused that they'll vote down all three initiatives. Note that the report states, "A surprise third initiative filed last week by a small, relatively unknown group would allocate electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote in California once a majority of states adopt a similar system." First of all, it is NOT proportional allocation by popular vote; it is allocation by congressional district like the Hiltachk (Republican) initiative. Secondly, the proviso "once a majority of states adopt a similar system" makes it sound more reasonable than the Hiltachk initiative, but is it? Which states? Red states? Blue states? A majority consisting of mostly small states could total far less than 270 electoral votes, which constitutes an electoral majority.

While we're going crazy with filing one initiative after another, it might be important to point out that the 1969 Maine law and the 1991 Nebraska law allocating those states' electoral votes by congressional district were enacted by their legislatures. The US Constitution, Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 states: "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress...." The legislature may direct the manner of appointing electors, but may the people do so via a ballot initiative? It may be that James Madison trumps Hiram Johnson.

The report he cites is an excellent piece by John Marelius at the San Diego Union-Tribune. It's a terrific roundup. Read it and keep it handy.

Posted by EDN on September 5, 2007 at 04:41 PM in Red Alert | Permalink

Comments

So good to see Tom getting some play on TNP. The upcoming Feb primary irritates the crap out of me: I am SO looking forward to GOTV on SuperBowl Sunday weekend. Do you suppose DP could arrange for it to be rescheduled?

Posted by: Sherry Reson | Sep 6, 2007 5:31:54 PM

The ballot measure to divide California’s 55 electoral votes by congressional district would magnify the worst features of our antiquated system of electing the President.

If the district approach were used nationally, it would less accurately reflect the will of the people than the current system. Although Bush lost the national popular vote in 2000, he won 55% of the country’s congressional districts. In 2004, Bush won 50.7% of the popular vote, but 59% of the districts. Obviously, if the district approach were installed in only one large state (such as California), it would greatly increase the chance that the winner of the presidential election would not have received the most votes nationwide.

The district approach would not, as claimed, make California relevant in presidential elections. Candidates have no reason to campaign in districts (or states) where they are comfortably ahead or hopelessly behind. Currently, candidates concentrate over two-thirds of their money and visits on just six closely divided “battleground” states, and 99% of their expenditures in just 16 states. Thus, two thirds of the states are ignored in presidential elections (including California). In California, the presidential race is a foregone conclusion in 50 of the state’s 53 congressional districts. Candidates would have no incentive than they do now to pay attention to California remaining 50 districts. Even if the district approach were used nationally, there are only 55 “battleground” districts that are competitive in presidential elections, so seven-eighths of the county would be left out of presidential elections. This is even worse than the current system, where two-thirds of the states are spectators.

A national popular vote is the way to guarantee that the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states becomes President. It is the way to make every person’s vote relevant, regardless of where that person lives.

The National Popular Vote bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President. When the legislation is in effect in that sized group of states, all of the electoral votes in the participating states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Thus, the National Popular Vote bill would guarantee that the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in all 50 states will win the Presidency.

The bill has 320 legislative sponsors in 47 states. It has been signed into law in Maryland. The bill has passed by 11 legislative houses since its introduction in February 2006 (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, and North Carolina, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, and California).

See www.NationalPopularVote.com

Posted by: John Koza | Sep 8, 2007 12:53:28 PM

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