"Give me back my legions!"

In response to my last post on suspected pushback from the Pentagon to Bush's war plans, commenter Amos Anan says, in part:

And with the trial balloon floats of troop reductions there have also been statements of possible troop increases and forced third duty tours to 'protect' the Iraqi government as it undergoes transition to an 'independent' form. There's still far too much conflicting information to think the situation is changing other than for reality based political reasons....

Lawrence Korb addresses this directly in the Daily News (via Wolcott):

And the Army does not want to order a soldier to be sent back a third time. By the end of this year, nearly every active-duty soldier will have spent at least two tours in Iraq. [...] Sending soldiers back for a third time will ruin the Army's retention rate, which so far has held up. Staying in Iraq through 2006 will completely undermine the Army's recruiting, which despite massive increases in enlistment bonuses is already a disaster. Keeping 50,000 reservists in Iraq throughout 2006 will force the administration to ask Congress to repeal the law that forbids reservists from serving on the active duty for more than two years.

So while Bush may not recognize it, there is an absolute reality, well beyond political reality, that will not go away nor be finessed. We simply don't have the troops for more mindless adventures.

Anan is concerned that "Bush's poll numbers can probably be reversed by some saturation propaganda and possibly a timely event. What would happen in America if a terror strike like the recent one in London should occur here?"

In such an event, we would likely be faced with an attempt to destroy more of our liberties and democracy, but it still wouldn't fundamentally change the military calculations regarding Iraq or Iran. Even if a full-blown draft were instituted tomorrow, we would not be in a position to open a credible third front, let alone make progress on the Iraq and Afghanistan fronts, for years.

If we are looking at political realities, I can hardly imagine how Bush could swing the population into support of such a course, whatever the propaganda push. The citizenry may be stupidly prone to back the president in war, but even the dullest among them will eventually get a clue that an attack here puts the lie to Bush's claim that we're keeping the terrorists engaged over there.

Anan concludes:

These may be the ever anticipated tipping point times and the scary part is that the Bush group acts most boldly when its power is being threatened. [...] Things will have to change, but the Bush group has never acted in anything but its own self interest. [...] These are oil people and they don't want to lose close access to those Iraqi oil reserves and they certainly don't want to risk having a Congress that might investigate their actions, with subpoena power and under oath testimony.

To which I reply, they might just have to take it, like it or not.

All of this reminds me of something a friend wrote to me the other day:

Why do I feel that the US right now is comparable to Rome and the reign of Augustus?  We're slipping into a military state, our leader believes he's god, and the end of democracy is near.

At the time, I wrote back that I thought Bush was closer to one of the dizzier dictators, such as Nero. But now that I'm thinking about it, my friend was right.

Bush's dilemma in Iraq has eerie echoes of Augustus' efforts to subdue and colonize Germania in the early years of the first century:

Publius Quintilius Varus, a career politician allied to Augustus' step-son Tiberius, was appointed to govern Germania. While encamped with three legions on the Weser River, Varus received reports from Arminius, a Romanized Germanic prince, of rebellion to the west. Thus lured into the Teutoburg Forest, the legions were destroyed in ambush by the German tribes and their eagle battle standards taken. Faced with such ignominious defeat, Varus committed suicide and his severed head was sent to Rome.

Roman aims in Germania, as elsewhere, were to extend Roman influence and empire as well as collect taxes. After the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest, Rome was never again able to gain a foothold past the Rhine.

You may recall the riveting scene in "I, Claudius" where Brian Blessed, as Augustus, roars in rage and frustration, "Quintilius Varus, where are my eagles?" Suetonius, the Roman historian, wrote in The Twelve Caesars that what Augustus cried out in his rage was "Quintilius Varus, give me back my legions!"

Rumsfeld can't give Bush his legions back. They just aren't there. We were lured into the quagmire of Iraq by those whose motives we scarcely understood, and defeat is at hand. While I doubt Rumsfeld is prepared to fall on his sword and have his head shipped to Crawford, there is no doubting that our dreams of empire have been halted at the Tigris.

The parallels are not perfect, and Bush is no Augustus, but Dick Cheney sure makes a swell Livia.